The Big Picture of Arctic Geopolitics: An actor-oriented analysis

Iselin Németh Winther and Andreas Østhagen (eds)

FNI Report 1/2024. Lysaker, FNI, 2024, 22 p. 

Abstract

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine of Ukraine in 2022 has drastically altered the relationship with the West, and questions about what China’s “neutral” stance in the West-Russia axis and the USA-China rivalry means for the Arctic are raised. Additionally, other actors, such as the EU and India, are increasingly showing an interest in the region. The tension in the north is primarily attributed to spillover from global power struggles and events taking place outside the Arctic, yet still influencing the regional dynamics.

In this report, we aim to provide a concise overview of some of the key actors in Arctic geopolitics: Russia, the United States, China, the European Union, and India. First, we examine what has changed in the approach of these actors in the Arctic following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, exploring these changes in the context of geopolitics and security policy. We find that the actors’ approach to the Arctic seems to be influenced not only by the geopolitical shifts resulting from Russia’s aggression, but also by China’s increased global significance, which, in turn, has regional impact in the Arctic. Second, we briefly consider the implications of a changed geopolitical landscape for Norway, finding that the most significant implication is linked to Norway’s relationship with Russia, characterized by a more hostile and risk-prone neighboring country.

https://www.fni.no/publications/the-big-picture-of-arctic-geopolitics-an-actor-oriented-analysis